Every quarter, I sit down and audit where I’m actually deploying capital. Not where I think I’m deploying it, but where I actually am.
And I update my “watch list.” The industries and sectors I’m paying attention to. The trends I’m seeing. The opportunities I’m positioning for.
I thought it would be useful to share that list with you. Not as investment advice, but as a window into how I’m thinking about the next decade.
What I’m Watching
Defense tech, fintech, and enterprise SaaS are the obvious ones. These spaces have secular tailwinds. Every company is getting more digital. Every government is spending more on defense. These are bets that don’t require me to predict consumer behavior.
Bitcoin remains my macro hedge. Not as an investment that’s going to make me rich. But as insurance against currency debasement. I’m probably over-exposed to it at this point (98% Bitcoin, 1% Ethereum, 1% other in my crypto allocation), but I’ve been comfortable holding since 2016.
Private credit and GP stakes are where I’m genuinely excited. The private credit market went from nothing to $3+ trillion in a decade. It’s still new enough that there’s mispricing, but mature enough that it’s a real asset class. GP stakes funds give you distribution and exposure without having to pick individual funds.
Real estate diversification beyond the usual suspects. Most of my exposure is mobile home parks, RV parks, and industrial outdoor storage. These are less competitive markets than apartments or office. The margins are better. The operators are smaller and more founder-friendly.
Home services is one I don’t talk about enough. Plumbing, HVAC, roofing. The big thesis is simple: Boomers are aging out of these markets, and consolidation is happening. The margins are higher than people think. The businesses are founder-owned. And there’s huge M&A activity.
Distressed assets and secondaries go in the same bucket for me. When credit cycles tighten (which they will), there will be opportunities to buy things at discounts. And secondaries of proven companies beat early-stage venture on risk-adjusted returns.
Seller finance real estate is underappreciated. When rates are high, sellers carry notes more often. That gives you access to deals that banks won’t touch. The yields are higher. The terms are more flexible.
Cybersecurity and IT solutions are just obvious positioning. Every company’s digital, every company’s under attack, every company needs help protecting themselves.
Longevity, wellness, and biohacking may sound trendy, but the dollars flowing into this space are real. Peptides, genomics, gut health. It’s not mainstream yet, which is why it’s interesting.
Energy (nuclear, clean, solar) is a bet on the data center boom and AI capex. We’re going to need a lot of energy. Nuclear is finally getting favorable treatment. The margins are there.
Robotics, autonomous tech, and AI-enabled infrastructure are further out, but the winners in this space will be generational wealth creators.
Onshoring and reshoring is a long-term macro play. The U.S. government is actively incentivizing manufacturing domestically. This is a 10-15 year tailwind.
Agriculture and ag-tech probably should have been on my list a decade ago. The consolidation of farms, the aging of farmers, the tech playing into traditional agriculture… there’s a lot happening here.
What I’m Not Watching
I’m not interested in commodities trading based on short-term price fluctuations. I’m not interested in any form of leverage that requires constant attention. I’m not interested in anything that requires me to predict consumer sentiment.
I’m also not interested in companies that are way ahead of their time and still losing money. The thing about the winners I mentioned above is that most of them are already profitable or have clear paths to profitability.
How I Actually Decide
The question I ask for every sector is simple: is there a 10+ year tailwind?
If yes, and if there are operators I trust in that space, I’ll allocate capital.
If no, I wait.
The goal isn’t to find the next 10x. It’s to position myself in spaces where the fundamentals are working in my favor and then find the best operators in those spaces.
A Note on Timing
One more thing: this list will change. In 2020, I was deep in certain sectors that I’m less interested in now. The fundamentals shifted. New opportunities opened up.
I’m not attached to being right about any of these. I’m attached to paying attention and reallocating when the facts change.
That’s the discipline that actually matters.
Until next week,
Justin
Keep Learning
The Hidden Cost of Poor Company Culture with Cathy Christen – EP 311
From Living in a Van to $1.4M in Net Worth with Michael Alberse – EP 310
